thank you.
-dolcej, usa
(quotes from Oxford English Dictionary and archived sources)<2nd century A.D. “‘Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cynco’ (A bird rarely seen on the earth, like nothing so much as a black swan).”—in Satires by Juvenal, I>
<1398 “The swanne hatte signus in latine and Olor in grewe, for he is al white in feþeres. for no man findeþ a blacke swanne.”— De Proprietat. Rerum by by Bartholomew de Glanville, translated by J. Trevisa, xii, xii (Bodl) 1f. Xii, page 120/1>
<1576 “What man is so mad as wil say the swan is black?—Comforte byG. Cardano, translated by T. Bedingfield, page 4>
<1606 “The abuse of such places [sc. theatres] was so great, that for any chaste liuer to haunt them, was a black swan, & a white crow.”—Schoole of Abuse by S. Gosson, f. page 12>
<1694 “Husbands without faults (if such black Swans there be).”—Ladies Dictionary by N. H., page 192 (bis)>
<1764 “I breakfasted . . . with Mr. B——, a black swan, an honest lawyer!”—Journal of J. Wesley, 2 October>
<1843 “The rara avis—the white crow—a good President.”—New Purchase by ‘R. Carlton,’ II. lvi. page 235>
<1890 “He may not be such a black swan as Aunt Susan makes him out.”—Misadventure by W. E. Norris, ix>
<1903 “Genius is a black swan . . .”—The Spectator, Vol. 88, page 325>
<1913 “The clever non-classical boy of a literary turn is a black swan; at least, he has never come across a specimen.”—Journal of Education, Vol. 35, page 439>
<1925 “A real friend is the most valuable blessing a man can possess, and, mark me, it is by far the most rare. It is a black swan.”— The remains of Henry Kirke White by H. K. White>
<1994 “In health care, Canada is a ‘black swan’ . . . It has less wealth than the United States, but since 1972, it has eliminated virtually all economic barriers to health care . . .”—Dominant Issues in medical Sociology by H. D. Schwartz, page 377>
(quotes from archives sources)<2004 “But, Taleb observed, the fact that an investor has not seen a black swan does not mean that he can rule it out.”— Bull!: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 by M. Mahar, page 284> [[using Hopper’s falsification idea above and Taleb’s modern definition]]
<2006 “Taleb’s point is that, while we may think we have sufficient information to form an opinion on a particular topic, we often underestimate the total sample size of the data required to make a rational decision [[We don’t know what we don’t know]]. We are thus surprised by a ‘black swan’—an event that we might have anticipated had we known the total realm of possible events.”—Where are the MWDs? by A. J. MAuroni, page 24>
<2007 “Terrorism is no longer much of a ‘black swan’ event for markets.”—The Economist, 7 July>
<2008 “I know of no one who seriously predicted that oil would rise so spectacularly in this five-year time frame. It has been as is commonly referred to in investment circles, a ‘black swan.’”—Syracuse Post-Standard, July 7, page 38>
<2009 “Asia is at risk for a liquidity-related ‘Black Swan’ event if the loose lending comes to an end, . . .”—Fiber Optics Weekly Update, 11 December>
<2010 “The collapse of Fannie Mae’s stock would have been unthinkable just a year ago or two earlier. The near complete loss of value qualifies as a Black Swan, or if you like, it was part of the larger Black Swan that swept through the housing, mortgage, and capital markets.”—Stalking the Black Swan by K. A. Posner, page 31>
<2011 “Events like the Arab revolutions, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, and other rare, so-called ‘black swan’ events seem to be on the rise, said Mark Williams, downstream director at Dutrch oil giant Shell.”—UMCI News (Potomac Falls, Virginia), 8 April>
Wow! Am I glad I no longer live in New York City with those 3 Indian Point nuclear reactors sitting on a fault zone 38 miles north. And with having to evacuate the 20 million people living with a 50 mile radius, can you imagine the time I'd have trying to hail a cab? (>:)<2011 “PLANNING FOR THE NEXT BLACK SWAN: The surprising accident at Fukushima puts the spotlight on a new generation of U.S. nuclear reactors. Are they safe enough?”—Scientific American, June, page 48>
Ken, with a few weeks' training I can throw a rock at them from my house :-( But I DO DO DO love the Hudson Valley! :<)Wow! Am I glad I no longer live in New York City with those 3 Indian Point nuclear reactors sitting on a fault zone 38 miles north. And with having to evacuate the 20 million people living with a 50 mile radius, can you imagine the time I'd have trying to hail a cab? (>:)